2011 - Simulating the Finals - Part I

This week's results won't have any bearing at all on which teams play in the Finals and has only an outside chance even of altering the ordering of the finalists and, in so doing, altering the venues at which games will take place in the first week of the finals. So, rather than simulating the results of what will largely be an inconsequential round, I've instead decided to simulate the finals series itself.

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2011 - Simulations After Round 22

Last weekend's results had relatively little bearing on the simulated final ladder positions for the teams at the top and bottom of the table, but they had significant effects on the relative chances for a handful of teams in making the top 4 or top 8.

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2011 - Simulations After Round 21

Perhaps the most startling conclusion from the latest round of simulations is that the Swans, despite losing last week, saw their chances of finishing in the top 8 enhanced. This was largely due to losses for Freo and the Dees that all but ended their hopes of playing in September (and certainly in October, if that ever was a real possibility).

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2011 - Simulations After Round 20

Round 20 margins went pretty much as the PPR Model predicted - its Mean Absolute Prediction Error was a very creditable 30.3 points per game which would have ranked it second amongst MAFL's Margin Predictors - so there's little change in its predictions for the remainder of the home-and-away season.

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2011 - Simulations After Round 19

Over on the Statistical Analysis blog, the Projection Pursuit Regression algorithm has won the right to be used as the Official Margin Predictor for Simulation Purposes for the remainder of the season.

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