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Entries from September 1, 2013 - September 30, 2013

Monday
Sep162013

Simulating the Finals for 2013 : Pre-Week 3

The week leading up to the Preliminary Finals is always revealing of the TAB Bookmaker's methods because he chooses to post markets for both of the Preliminary Finals, for all possible Grand Finals Quinellas, and for all four remaining teams for the Flag.

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Monday
Sep092013

Simulating the Finals for 2013 : Pre-Week 2

At this stage of the season it's apparent that MARS rates the Swans and the Cats more highly than does the TAB Bookmaker, partly because MARS is less sensitive/susceptible (you choose which) to short-term fluctuations in team form. As a result, the latest round of Finals Simulations reflect, on average, better outcomes for these teams.

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Monday
Sep022013

Simulating the Finals for 2013 : Pre-Week 1

There's not a lot of value in the TAB Sportsbet market for the AFL Finals right now, save for some generous pricing in relation to the Hawks in the Flag and Make-the-GF markets.

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