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Entries from July 1, 2010 - July 31, 2010

Monday
Jul262010

Final Ladder Positions: Simulations After Round 17

If you're a Pies, Dogs or Carlton supporter - or, I guess, an Eagles supporter with a contrarian nature and a willingness to profit from adversity - you've much to be happy about following last weekend's results and their effect on your team's chances of participating come September.

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Thursday
Jul222010

Finding Value in the Markets for Final Ladder Positions

In an earlier blog I used a simple method to create one view of the season's final home-and-away ladder. Those projections had Collingwood finishing third because it lost narrowly to the Cats in Round 19 while the Cats and the Saints were projected to win all their remaining games. Three of the Cats' wins and two of the Saints' were by only a handful of points, however, so it was easy to imagine scenarios in which the ordering at the top was quite different and where, for example, the Pies finish top of the ladder.

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Tuesday
Jul202010

Projecting the Final Ladder for 2010 (After Round 16)

It's late July and normally it'd be time for the first whispers of tanking to emerge, but the rejigging of the draft process next year to accommodate the introduction of Gold Coast and GWS has significantly reduced the reward to sustained ineptitude so effectively that, this year, I doubt there'll be much talk of it (or, come to that, much compelling evidence of its existence). Another popular late-July activity is speculating about the finals and I think it's time we did a little of that.

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